GUJCOT WEEKLY REPORT 15-JUN-2024
Posted : July 20, 2024

Market Movement from 10th Jun 2024 to 15th Jun 2024.

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  • The New York July future closed with a week-over-week loss of 287 points, while December future contract closed with a loss of 75 points week-over-week. This resulted in an inversion is now carrying December 117 points relative to July.
  • The July options have expired, making December the front month. Most open interest has now shifted to December. Since December is a long-term contract, we can expect to see numerous weather events before it expires.
  • In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 06-Jun-2024, U.S. export sales for the 2023-2024 season included net upland sales of 1,77,200 bales and upland shipments of 1,86,600 bales. Net Pima sales reached 3,700 bales with Pima shipments totaling 9,000 bales, bringing the total sales to 1,80,900 bales. For the 2024-2025 season, net upland sales were 1,77,400 bales, with no net Pima sales, resulting in a total of 1,77,400 bales.
  • The USDA-WASDE June 2024 report shows increased U.S. cotton beginning and ending stocks for 2024-25, with the average price down to 70 cents per pound. Ending stocks are projected at 4.1 million bales. For 2023-24, U.S. exports decrease by 5,00,000 bales, domestic use increases by 50,000 bales, and ending stocks rise by 4,50,000 bales. Globally, 2024-25 projections see higher beginning stocks, production, and consumption, with ending stocks at 83.5 million bales, up 4,80,000. Burma's increased area and yield boost production, while consumption rises in Vietnam and Burma. Revisions for 2023-24 lead to higher ending stocks by approximately 5,00,000 bales.
  • The Gujcot Spot Rate exhibited a slight fluctuation. Starting at 56,000 Rs per candy on Monday, it decreased to 55,700 on Tuesday, then rose to 55,850 on Wednesday. The rate continued to climb marginally to 55,900 on Thursday before experiencing a minor drop to 55,800 on Friday. The rate on Saturday was 55,850 Rs per Candy. Overall, the market showed minor variations with a general downward trend from the start of the week.
  • All India arrivals are currently around 35,000 bales per day. However, this may slow down with the monsoon progress.
  • New York futures have weakened each week, while Indian physical prices have remained stable due to reduced arrivals, making the Indian basis more expensive. This week, the Indian basis stands between 12.29 to 14.29.
  • The USD-INR exchange rate showed minimal fluctuations. Starting at 83.50 on Monday, it slightly increased to 83.56 on Tuesday, then slightly decreased to 83.54 on Wednesday and remained stable at 83.54 on Thursday. On Friday, it experienced a slight increase to 83.55. Overall, the exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout the week with only minor variations.
  • The monsoon progressed toward Maharashtra last week. We anticipate that Gujarat will begin to receive monsoon showers soon.
  • Sowing in the North is less. In South India, timely monsoon rains have boosted sowing activities. In Central India, most areas are expected to receive rain next week, which will initiate sowing activities.
  • Hoping for a better monsoon.

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