Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter October 2018
Posted : February 22, 2019

RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

Most benchmark prices decreased over the past month.

Values for the December NY futures contract moved lower in the second half of September, dropping from 82 to 76 cents/lb by early October. In later trading, prices have generally held between 76 and 78 cents/lb.

The A Index also moved lower in the second half of September. Losses pulled the A Index from 92 to 86 cents/lb.

The Chinese Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) fell in both domestic and international terms over the past month. In domestic terms, the CC Index decreased from 16,300 to 16,000 RMB/ton. A decline in the RMB relative to the dollar (-1% over the month) amplified decreases in dollar terms, with values falling from 108 to 105 cents/lb.

Indian spot prices (Shankar-6 quality) decreased in local terms, falling from values above 47,700 to 46,500 INR/candy. The Indian rupee (INR) also lost ground against the dollar over the past month (-3% over the month). This put additional downward pressure on values expressed in USD, with Indian benchmark prices falling from 84 to 80 cents/lb.

Pakistani spot prices moved lower from mid-September through early October (from 8,300 to 7,650 PKR/maund). More recently, however, prices turned higher (rising to 8,400 PKR/maund). A drop in the value of the Pakistani rupee (PKR) offset the effect of these recent advances (-8% over the month). Pakistani benchmark values are lower than one month ago in USD terms (81 cents/lb in mid-September, 76 cents/lb currently).

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