Monthly Rate Movement Report – March 2019
Posted : April 26, 2019

Dear All Cotton Friends,

Wish you all Happy New Financial Year

In mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujarat is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

 

  • Daily Physical Spot Rate

 

  • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

 

  • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

 

  • Cotlook Index

 

  • ICE Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX Kapas Rate

 

  • MCX Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

 

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

 

Conclusion

  • US China Trade talk still not reached any concrete solution
  • Neutral WASDE Report
  • Bullish USDA surprise by reducing US planting intentions
  • Indian physical cotton market gained double than the Indian Cotton Futures gained during the week.
  • China was buyer during this month for the Indian cotton
  • Cotton and cotton seed price rise was double bonanza to farmers.

March was bull dominated month. NY May future gained 4.79 cents or more than 6.5% during this month. WASDE was neutral but short covering of spec sparked the rally. At the end of the month USDA gave bullish surprise by reducing New season’s planting intentions. For the new season crop there will be many hurdles to be passed, finally Mother Nature will decide the final crop size. Crop quantity is not decided by area only but harvested area and yield will also play a very vital part in final crop size of the new year.

Export Sales were nearly 7,00,000 bales for the current year and 3,00,000 bales for the new season during this month. Pace of shipment improved to over 14 lakh bales during the month. Sales will cross USDA target easily in remaining time of the current US cotton season and US will need to accelerate pace of shipment further to meet USDA export target. 

Indian physical market was highly undervalued because ginners were carrying stocks from long time, and consumers were not able to absorb the daily arrivals. When bull-run starts undervalued items gain more. Indian physical market gained nearly 3,000 Rs per candy while MCX future gained only 750 Rs. Per Bale or 1,600 Rs. Per Candy. It shows that the physical market was highly undervalued. In start of the month there was stock with big exporter which got offloaded by Chinese buying.  physical market has experienced a rise due to Chinese buying and supported by ginner’s sentiment. Due to sudden rise in Indian cotton, Indian consumers has booked imported cotton during this month. There was double bonanza for farmer with rise in cotton as well as rise in cotton seed which eventually created bull market sentiment.

Arrivals declined in the later part of the month due to tight selling by farmers.

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