GUJCOT MONTHLY RATE MOVEMENT REPORT– JAN-2024
Posted : July 20, 2024

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

 

  • Daily Physical Spot Rate

 

  • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

 

  • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

 

  • Cotlook Index

 

  • ICE Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX Kapas Rate

 

  • MCX Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

 

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

 

  • This month, the bulls in the New York Futures market were delighted by the favorable cotton balancesheet of the United States as presented in the WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates). The market also received strong support from robust export sales, contributing to a positive sentiment among traders.
  • Speculative interest in cotton saw a return, leading to a steady increase in open interest throughout the month.
  • In the week-to-week comparison, New York March experienced a gain of 417 points, while New York May recorded a W/W gain of 426 points.
  • U.S. export sales demonstrated robust performance throughout all four weeks of the month, providing support to the New York Futures market. However, shipment numbers are currently lagging behind the target. It is anticipated that in the later part of the month, shipments will accelerate to meet the set targets.
  • The WASDE report indicated a decline in U.S. production numbers, although it did not favor global figures. The reduction in consumption and lower exports had a neutralizing effect, resulting in a bearish outlook for the world in the WASDE report.
  • The Indian physical market exhibited a gradual upward trend, reaching a new high of 56,000 by the third week. However, substantial arrivals led to a partial retracement of gains, settling the mid-point of the monthly increase near the 55,500 level.
  • In January, arrivals exceeded expectations, prompting farmers to be willing to sell their produce.
  • The overall daily arrival across All India averaged 1,75,000 bales, with Gujarat specifically maintaining an average daily arrival of 45,000 bales throughout the month.
  • The attractiveness of the Indian basis, driven by substantial arrivals, led to active participation from basis players in buying. With the support of basis players, C.C.I., and exporters, the market remained steady to firm despite the significant influx of produce.
  • The substantial arrival of cotton was absorbed by C.C.I. (Cotton Corporation of India) and M.N.C. (Multinational Companies), along with textile mills. However, in contrast, cottonseed did not see a similar uptake by oil mills, resulting in a substantial surplus of cottonseed stock with ginners.
  • The Indian basis experienced a consistent decline, starting from 464 at the beginning of the month to a negative 0.15 on the last day of the month. The combination of a smaller U.S. crop, speculative buying, and robust export sales played a role in pushing the NY March Futures beyond the psychological resistance level of 85 cents. Meanwhile, the significant influx of cotton in India led to a decline, bringing it close to parity.
  • Throughout the month, the USD-INR exchange rate displayed a relatively stable performance with minor fluctuations. In the first week, there were nuanced shifts as the rate started at 83.23, experienced slight variations, and ended at 83.15. The second week witnessed a persistent downward trajectory, starting at 83.13 and ending at 82.92, indicating potential influencing factors. The third week saw slight fluctuations, starting at 82.88 and closing at 83.06, providing insights into evolving currency market dynamics. The fourth week reflected minimal changes, maintaining stability around 83.11. The month concluded with the last three days showing rates of 83.13, 83.10, and 83.04. Overall, the month's exchange rate performance suggests a balanced market sentiment, influenced by global economic factors and geopolitical developments, with continued monitoring advised for potential shifts in the upcoming weeks.
  • Indian arrivals have surpassed expectations, with approximately 30 lakh (3 million) bales being accumulated by the Cotton Corporation of India (C.C.I.) and a substantial quantity held by various merchants.
  • In the upcoming month, the force of arrivals is expected to decrease, and as a result, rates may remain steady to firm.
  • Wishing all our friends in the cotton industry a more prosperous month of February with better earnings.

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