Market Reports
China Cotton Auction FINAL
  • 12-March-2018 To 30-Sept-2018

    METRIC TONNES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 5,256,286
    Cumulative Sales 2,510,279
    Remaining Stock 2,746,007

    BALES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 24,142,123
    Cumulative Sales 11,529,712
    Remaining Stock 2,612,411
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
  • Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA

    Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
Brazil: More cotton acreage is being planted
  • Shifting Corn Acres to Cotton

    While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.

    Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
DTN Cotton Close 14-Jun
  • Lower on Unenthusiastic Trading

    December Cotton settled lower Friday, leaving the new crop market up only 0.24 cent for the week. This week saw improving field conditions across the Southeast, weaker weekly sales and a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar traded higher as Mideastern geopolitical tensions heightened with the attack on two civilian oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf.
Cotton Indices and Spot Rate As on 13-Jun-2019
  • Cotlook A Index 77.50 +1.00

    US Upland Spot Rate 61.76 +0.26

    Brazil Cotton Index 72.31 -0.52%

    KCA Spot Rate 8,800 Unch

    MCX Spot Rate 22,040

    China Cotton Index
    As on 14-Jun-2019

    CC Index 328 14062 +43
    CC Index 227 13119 +09
    CC Index 229 14439 +21
ICE Cotton Update
  • ICE Cotton dips on stronger dollar

    ICE cotton futures fell 1% on Friday due to a firmer dollar and weak U.S. export sales data.

    The most active cotton contract on ICE Futures U.S., the third-month December contract, fell 0.73 cent, or 1.1%, to 65.70 cents per lb by 2:27 p.m. EDT (1827 GMT). It traded within a range of 65.68 and 66.63 cents a lb.
Stock Position as on 13-Jun-2019
  • NCDEX

    Cotton Seed Oil Cake Stock
    Unencumbered = 17,002 MT
    Pledged = 468 MT
    QTY in Process = 00 MT

    MCX

    Total Utilized Capacity = 1,59,000 Bales
    Eligible for Exchange Delivery = 1,57,100 Bales
    Quantity in Process = 000 Bales
    Rejected Stocks = 700 Bales
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter Mar-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Benchmark prices were flat or slightly higher over the past month. 

    Prices for the May NY futures contract increased over past month, climbing from levels just below 70 cents/lb in mid-February to those near 74 cents/lb recently.  
Thompson On Cotton 21-Mar-2019
  • Days of sunshine with tractors stirring up dust are enough to knock the rust right off your soul. You can sense it when talking to growers, there is a lift in their voices and a chuckle or two now and then.

    That’s a welcomed feeling after a grueling and depressing past several months. Dissolved of the hangover of 2018, sights are now set on the bountifulness a new crop can bring. Resiliency has and always will be the cornerstone of our industry – something I revere most about all those involved with it.
USDA Prospective Plantings
  • USDA Planting Intention

    US All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

    Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018.

    American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.
ICAC - World Cotton Supply and Distribution
  • Global Consumption Projected to Reach Record High in 2019/20

    ·Despite persistent challenges, global cotton consumption should reach an all-time high in 2019/20
    ·World production should rise to 27.6 million tonnes, boosted in part by a 6% increase in global yields
    · Ending stocks are projected to increase slightly from 2018/19 to 17.7 million tonnes
    · ICAC’s price projection for the A Index at the end of 2019/20 is 81.25 cents per pound, with a forecast range between 60.71 to 94.23 cents per pound
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter Apr-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Benchmark prices either increased or were stable over the past month.

    Prices for the May NY futures contract increased, climbing from levels near 75 cents/lb in mid-March to those near 79 cents/lb recently. The July contract, which now represents more open interest, also rose and has maintained values slightly higher than those for the May contract.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Market Improves, Future Unknown as Planting Approaches

    In my previous comments to you, the title was “Cotton Continues to Need Clarity”. I’m not sure much has changed in that regard. The market has certainly made nice improvement, however, and we can be thankful for that.

    There is still no word or advance in trade talks and the March 30th Prospective Plantings report, in my opinion, threw more uncertainty on the market.
Reinhart Cotton Market Report 25 Apr
  • India – Physical prices traded steady last week on slow selling from ginners and slow emand from domestic mills. As per the latest CCI report, India’s current cotton crop arrivals reached 27.88 million bales until 16th April 2019. The Indian rupee depreciated against the US dollar and is now around 70.10 (spot), mainly due to surging crude oil prices.
Rose On Cotton 29-Apr-2019
  • CHINA TO MAKE RESERVE STOCKS AVAILABLE, INDIAN CROP LOOKS SMALLER

    ICE cotton posted a modest loss for the week ending April 26, with the July contract giving up 57 points to finish at 77.60.  The Dec contract gave back 86 at 76.19.  The July – Dec inversion strengthened to 151 and remains a bullish near-term and bearish longer-term indicator.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 25-04-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 1,44,700
    Upland Shipments 2,92,600
    Net Pima Sales 12,900
    Pima Shipments 10,300
    TOTAL SALES 1,57,600

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 56,300
    Net Pima Sales 500
    TOTAL 56,800
Indian Raw Cotton Export-Import 2018-19
  • INDIAN COTTON EXPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    6,63,386 Tones
    39,02,271 Bales of 170 Kg

    INDIAN COTTON IMPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    1,01,072 Tones
    5,94,541 Bales of 170 Kg

Jernigan Global Weekly 29-Apr-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    . US DOLLAR SHORTAGE TRIGGERS NEW SELLLING IN, BRAZIL/ARGENTINE COTTON AS CURRENCIES WEAKEN

    2. US EXPORT DEMAND FOCUSED ON 2018/2019 AS BRAZIL DOMINATES 2019 AND 2020 CROPS

    3. CHINA ANNOUNCES THE SMALLEST ANNUAL RESERVE SALES IN MORE THAN FOUR YEARS

    4. INDIA TEXTILE AND APPAREL PRODUCTION CAPACITY EXPANDING AS COTTON CRISIS GROWS

    5. AUSTRALIA’S HARVEST EXPANDS, WITH RAINS INCREASING IN QUEENSLAND
Plexus Market Comments 02 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    Bearish new crop vibes and a stronger US dollar are weighing the market down and this is not likely to change anytime soon. Having said that, we still believe that July will eventually divorce itself from new crop, especially if these lower prices lead to stronger export sales.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 3, 2019

    FUTURES PRICES DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK

    • Some News Positive, Some Not
    • Traders Await Supply/Demand Estimates
    • Export Sales Better But Shipments Disappoint
    • Still Waiting For Trade Negotiations News
Cleveland On Cotton 03-May-2019
  • Cleveland on Cotton: Brazil Prices Undercutting U.S. Offers to China

    As was cautioned in last week’s newsletter, cotton prices came under pressure all week and new crop December prices broke below the psychologically important 75 cent support level, giving a good victory to the market bears.
ICAC - China Issues Additional Import Quota, Sets Date for Reserve Sales
  • Highlights from the May edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

    · The USA is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter in 2018/19, despite ongoing Chinese tariffs.

    · China is projected to be the world’s largest consumer at 8.45 million tonnes.
Rose On Cotton 05-May-2019
  • ROSE ON COTTON – TOUGH WEEK FOR COTTON FUTURES; MID-SOUTH WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASING

    ICE cotton posted losses for the week ending May 3, with the July and Dec contracts giving up 202 and 174 points, respectively.  The July – Dec inversion weakened modestly to 123 but remains a bullish near-term and bearish longer-term indicator.
China Cotton Auction
  • From May 5 to June 14, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 25.51 tons, with a turnover rate of 81.90%.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Don’t Wait For 80 Cents

    Although many of you may have grown tired of all the hubbub surrounding the Mueller Report and subsequent questioning of Attorney General Barr, I instead came to appreciate it for the fact it kept our President’s tweets preoccupied.
Shurley on Cotton 08-May-2019
  • Market Thoughts Ahead of the May Report

    USDA will release its May crop production and supply and demand estimates on Friday this week. In May, the final yield/production numbers for the previous crop year are released. Also, the May reports will contain the first forecasts of production and supply and demand for the new crop year.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 02-05-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 2,35,800
    Upland Shipments 3,87,100
    Net Pima Sales 2,100
    Pima Shipments 16,600
    TOTAL SALES 2,37,900

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 56,500
    Net Pima Sales 5,700
    TOTAL 62,200
Plexus Market Comments 09 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    At the moment there is no telling where this falling knife is finally going to stick. The chart looks awful but momentum indicators are in “extreme oversold” territory. This means that a sharp rebound could come at any time, but some positive news is needed to trigger it.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 10, 2019

    TRADE WORRIES WEIGH ON MARKETS

    • President Set to Increase Tariffs
    • China Begins to Auction National Reserves
    • USDA Raises U.S. Production, Exports and Ending Stocks
Cleveland On Cotton 10-May-2019
  • Cleveland on Cotton: O.A. is on the Warpath – 3 Decades of Grower Acceptance, Lack of Promotion.

    The weakening demand fears related to the U.S.-China tariff dispute as well as the resurgence in the world demand for Brazilian cotton led the New York ICE contract lower all week.
Rose On Cotton 11-May-2019
  • US – CHINA SPAT DEVOLVES INTO ALL – OUT WAR; MAY WASDE OFFERS LITTLE ENCOURAGEMENT

    It was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week for ICE cotton futures, with the July and Dec contracts posting losses of 723 and 505 points, respectively. Both contracts finished the week significantly south of the 70.00 level. The July – Dec inversion gave way to carry of 95 points.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 09-05-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 2,26,900
    Upland Shipments 3,62,800
    Net Pima Sales 8,200
    Pima Shipments 22,900
    TOTAL SALES 2,35,100

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 1,76,400
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,76,400
Plexus Market Comments 16 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    The US/China trade scare combined with a bearish technical picture has collapsed the futures market under the weight of heavy spec and index fund selling. However, this drop into the mid-60s has sparked sizeable export business as mills are filling in remaining needs and even bolster their inventories in some cases.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 17, 2019

    MARKET FALLS, VOLATILITY TO CONTINUE

    • Trade Disputes Continue to Weigh on Markets
    • Weather Impacts Planting Across United States
    • Eyes on Weather, Reports and Policy Going Forward
Cleveland On Cotton 17-May-2019
  • Digging Deep for Some Good News

    One had to dig deep this week to find positive news in the cotton market. It could only be found in the markets double bottom technical support between 66 and 67 cents, basis the December contract. Even at that, going into the weekly close that support was showing slight weakness.
Shurley on Cotton 17-May-2019
  • Prices Tumble Through Support as Trade Uncertainties Mount

    New crop Dec futures had solid support at 72 cents. Having earlier reached the 77-cent area, prices had begun to decline in mid-April but the 72 cent area was expected to hold and provide a safety net for producers looking for prices to eventually rebound and provide additional pricing opportunities.
ROSE ON COTTON 20-MAY-2019
  • ICE COTTON SUFFERS ANOTHER UGLY WEEK, US – CHINA TALKS ON LIFE SUPPORT

    It was another ugly week for ICE cotton, with the July and Dec contracts posting losses of 246 and 302 points, respectively. The July – Dec spread strengthened to (39), which is far less than full carry, which should incentivize export shipments.
Jernigan Global Weekly 20-May-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. CHINA UNDERESTIMATED THE US POSITION AS RIGHT/LEFT UNITE; NO RETURN TO POST-JUNE 18 CONDITIONS

    2. XINJIANG TEXTILE AND APPAREL SUPPLY CHAIN DRAGGED INTO REEDUCATION CAMPS DEBATE

    3. US COTTON EXPORTS WILL HAVE TO BE REDIRECTED

    4. MOVEMENT OF TEXTILE AND APPAREL SUPPLY CHAINS OUT OF CHINA UNDERWAY

    5. CHINA MAN-MADE FIBER FABRICS DAMAGING COTTON USE IN VIETNAM
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 16-05-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 3,81,500
    Upland Shipments 3,48,600
    Net Pima Sales -2,100
    Pima Shipments 13,000
    TOTAL SALES 3,79,400

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 2,41,500
    Net Pima Sales 4,500
    TOTAL 2,46,000
US Cumulative Cotton Export Sales - Countrywise
  • US Cumulative Cotton Export Sales

    01-August-2018 To 16-May-2019

    PIMA 7,07,319
    UPLAND 1,46,22,154
    TOTAL 1,53,29,473
Plexus Market Comments 23 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    According to our calculations current crop supplies should be nearly sold out by now, depending on how many new crop sales are going to be shipped from existing inventory. This makes July a dangerous month to be short and we therefore wouldn’t rule out a spec short-covering rally over the coming weeks.

    December on the other hand faces a lot of overhead resistance, be it from the trade that needs to bolster its massively ‘underhedged’ new crop position or from specs rolling short their short Julys into December.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 24, 2019

    DESPITE VOLATILITY, FUTURES POST GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK

    July Up 240 Points, December Up 124
    Planting Progress Surprises Some
    Foreign Mills Continue Buying U.S. Cotton
    Hopes for Trade Resolution Fade
Cleveland On Cotton 24-May-2019
  • U.S. Textile Supply Chain Leaving China

    Cotton prices had a plus week with December gaining 121 points going into the weekly close at 67.55. The market found solid support all week as mills were active with price fixations and excellent sales of both old crop and new crop.
Jernigan Global Weekly 27-May-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. COLLAPSE IN MAN-MADE FIBER DEMAND IN CHINA AS MORE CAPACITY COMES ONLINE

    2. OVERCAPACITY & PRICE PRESENT A CHALLENGE

    3. CHINA IS HEADED FOR A NEW ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS: WILL THIS REIN IN EXCESS MAN-MADE FIBER CAPACITY?

    4. AFRICAN FRANC ZONE HIGH GRADE BASIS FIRMS AS SUPPLIES DIMINISH

    5. CHINA 2019/2020 ELS PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO FALL SHARPLY
ROSE ON COTTON 26-MAY-2019
  • ICE COTTON REBOUNDS AHEAD OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HALTS 5-WEEK LOSING STREAK                  

    LOUIS W ROSE IV AND BARRY BEAN

    The Bulls finally managed to get on the right side of the market with the July and Dec contracts posting gains of 240 and 117 points on the week, respectively.  The July – Dec spread flipped from light carry to an inversion of 84 points, which should incentivize export shipments.
Plexus Market Comments 30 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    We still believe that a short-covering rally in July is on the cards, but with December and March pulling in the other direction, it remains to be seen whether July can detach itself to force a bigger inversion.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 23-05-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 2,88,800
    Upland Shipments 4,10,600
    Net Pima Sales 1,500
    Pima Shipments 32,100
    TOTAL SALES 2,90,300

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 1,36,200
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,36,200
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 31, 2019

    FUTURES FALTER AT WEEK’S END

    July Closes at 68.08, December Closes at 67.07
    Planting Accelerates as Insurance Planting Dates Loom
    Weather Making Planting Difficult in Some Areas
    Demand Continues
    Trade Tensions Applying Yet Another Large Dose of Uncertainty
Shurley on Cotton 31-May-2019
  • Weather Affecting Price but Not in Recovery Mode

    Weather wise, the month of May has not been kind. The US cotton production area has experienced extremes in weather. New crop futures prices have seen a bit of a bounce but nothing to say we’re on the road to “recovery” yet.
Rose On Cotton 01-Jun-2019
  • ROSE ON COTTON – MEXICO TARIFFS FORCE ICE COTTON TO SETTLE LOWER ON WEEK, JULY CONTRACT LOSES 870 FOR MAY                  
    LOUIS W. ROSE IV AND BARRY B. BEAN

    ICE cotton posted a modest loss for the week with the July and Dec contracts giving up 31 and 48 points, respectively; July lost 870 in May.  The July – Dec spread strengthened to 101, which should continue to incentivize export shipments.
Jernigan Global Weekly 03-Jun-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. CONSUMERS OF AUSTRALIAN COTTON PREPARE FOR RECORD LOW CROP IN 2020

    2. PREMIUMS TO US COTTON EXTEND TO UNCHARTED TERRITORY

    3. INDIAN DOMESTIC PRICES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE

    4. MEXICAN APPAREL IMPORTS FACE NEW TARIFFS UNLESS BORDER CONTROL RESTORED

    5. US 2018/2019 EXPORT SALES CONTINUE BRISK AS US COTTON REMAINS THE CHEAPEST IN THE WORLD
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Looking Beyond the Uncertainties of Trade Tensions  

    The trade dispute between the United States and China has impacted cotton demand and supply chains over the course of the past year. On 1 June 2019, China is set to increase tariffs on $60 billion of US goods in retaliation to the US tariff increase on the remaining $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Highlight

    FAS Post estimates India’s marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29.3 million 480 lb. bales (37.5 million 170-kilogram bales/6.4 MMT) from 12.45 million hectares of planted area.

    MY 2019/20 cotton consumption at 25.3 million 480 lb. bales (32.4 million 170- kilogram bales/5.5 MMT)
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 30-05-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 1,82,400
    Upland Shipments 3,08,600
    Net Pima Sales 2,000
    Pima Shipments 14,100
    TOTAL SALES 1,84,400

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 51,600
    Net Pima Sales 300
    TOTAL 51,900
Thompson On Cotton 06-Jun-2019
  • A Bounce With A Weak Starting Point

    Cotton prices have rebounded in the past few weeks due to unfavorable weather and encouraging export sales. But before you get too excited, this bounce is off lows in the mid 60s.
Plexus Market Comments 06 June
  • So where do we go from here?

    The trade needs to increase its net short in the futures market by a substantial margin, but that requires speculators to go net long again. However, with the chart still in bearish territory and with Trump fighting trade wars on several fronts, speculators seem to be in no hurry to reverse their position.
Cleveland On Cotton 07-Jun-2019
  • Curve Balls Just Keep on Coming

    If the cotton market were a heavyweight fighter the referee would have signaled a TKO this week.

    December futures have suffered 6 consecutive days of losses and going into Friday’s settlement the cumulative loss was 292 points, about 3 cents. Fundamental news was hard to come by, but demand, especially in a slowing of Chinese demand was noted.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JUNE 7, 2019

    PLANTING CONTINUES WHILE MARKETS REMAIN UNSETTLED

    Planting Continues Despite Wet Conditions
    Export Sales Concentrated in One Destination
    Trade Uncertainty Ratcheted Higher
    WASDE Report to Come Next Week
Rose On Cotton 08-Jun-2019
  • Importers in China have applied for – and have been granted – waivers of US tariffs against some American goods, including pork, but no waivers for cotton or other major US row crops have yet been noted. However, cotton is a very small piece of the US – China trade relationship and, if China begins to re-stock its strategic reserve, waivers could be in the offing for cotton imports from this US. Continued drought across Australia would likely enhance the realization of such a scenario
Jernigan Global Weekly 10-Jun-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. INDICATIONS SUGGEST CHINESE COTTON USE HAS FALLEN 20-30% AS THE RESULT OF TRADE WAR

    2. JERNIGAN GLOBAL LOWERS CHINESE COTTON CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES

    3. INDIA FACES MAJOR DROUGHT BEFORE MONSOON ARRIVES AND SHORTAGE OF IRRIGATION WATER IN GUJARAT

    4. US CROP POTENTIAL SHRINKING AMID  EXCESSIVE WET PATTERN

    5. RECORD HARVEST UNDERWAY IN BRAZIL’S BAHIA REGION
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter Jun-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Most benchmark prices decreased over the past month. Chinese prices moved sharply lower.

    Open interest has shifted from July and into the December contract.  After moving lower in early May, values for the July contract were volatile but range-bound between 65 and 70 cents/lb for most of the past month.  Values for the December contract also moved lower in early May.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 06-06-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 75,100
    Upland Shipments 3,60,400
    Net Pima Sales 5,700
    Pima Shipments 18,800
    TOTAL SALES 80,800

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 43,000
    Net Pima Sales 4,100
    TOTAL 47,100
Plexus Market Comments 13 June
  • So where do we go from here?

    Until we get a better grip on the US crop potential, the trade is probably not going to add too many shorts in the mid-60s, but will likely do so on rallies towards 70 cents. This should keep December range bound in the near future.

    Longer-term the market still looks vulnerable to the downside, but only if there are no major crop issues.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JUNE 14, 2019

    LACK OF DIRECTION KEEPS FUTURES IN CHECK

    WASDE Raises World Ending Stocks
    Crop Off to a Rough Start
    Export Demand Slows
    Uncertainty Casts Shadow on Market
    Weekly Reports Closely Watched
Cleveland On Cotton 14-Jun-2019
  • Bearish Hints from WASDE Cotton Report

    Cotton prices ended the week moving to the downside, but with the weekly settlement showing a 24-point gain for the week.

    The rather dull week was highlighted by the June WASDE report, which carried a bearish sentiment as world ending stocks were increased. More importantly, the report indicated a weakness in world demand, a key signal that suggests a weak market. Yet, the question remains as to whether the weakness has already been reflected in market pricing or whether more weakness is to come.