GUJCOT MONTHLY RATE MOVEMENT REPORT– APR-2024
Posted : July 20, 2024

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

 

  • Daily Physical Spot Rate

 

  • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

 

  • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

 

  • Cotlook Index

 

  • ICE Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX Kapas Rate

 

  • MCX Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

 

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

 

  • During the past month, New York witnessed a surge of unsettling events, marked by a disturbing level of violence. Despite positive export figures and a neutral WASDE report, the market remained indifferent. The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, coupled with the certification of stock, exerted immense pressure on market dynamics.
  • Throughout the month, speculators were compelled to liquidate substantial quantities, resulting in a drastic reduction in open interest. The figure plummeted to nearly two lakh contracts, a significant decline from the peak of 2,90,000 contracts.
  • As May draws to a close, trading activities are transitioning swiftly to the July contract. With the mid-month expiration looming, market focus has shifted entirely to the upcoming contract. Despite the turbulence witnessed earlier in the month, attention now gravitates towards positioning and strategizing for the new trading period.
  • In a notable turn of events, the New York May Futures experienced a decline of 1,346 points month-over-month, mirroring a similar downturn in the July Futures, which lost 1,354 points over the same period. This marked a challenging month for both contracts, characterized by significant losses in market value.
  • At the opening, the inverse of July to December stood at 798 points, but it gradually narrowed to 160 points month-over-month.
  • Despite this adjustment, the WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report remained neutral, with minimal changes compared to the March edition. This stability suggests a relatively unchanged outlook in agricultural supply and demand dynamics.
  • Export sales and shipments are both performing strongly, surpassing the required pace to meet established targets. This robust performance indicates a healthy demand for exports and suggests that the market is currently operating ahead of schedule in terms of meeting export goals.
  • The Indian physical market has closely mirrored the trend observed in the New York Futures, experiencing a sustained decline in rates. This consistent decrease in prices reflects the influence and direction set by the fluctuations in the New York market, indicating a synchronized movement between the two markets.
  • At the start of the month, S-6 Spot Rate was 61,000 Rs. Per candy, which gradually declined to 57,600 Rs. Per candy by the end of the month.
  • Merchants engaged in significant selling activity, capitalizing on the positive basis that favored their positions. This resulted in a notable offloading of a large quantity of goods throughout the month.
  • At the beginning of the month, the Indian basis remained flat. However, a sharp decline in the New York Futures market led to a positive shift, reaching 10.39 by mid-month. Despite fluctuations, the basis has maintained a positive stance, currently hovering around 1,000 points.
  • The nationwide arrival of bales commenced at approximately 80,000 bales, but dwindled to below 50,000 bales by month's end. In Gujarat, arrivals remained relatively stable, ranging between 20,000 to 25,000 bales initially, before tapering off to approximately 18,000 bales per day towards the end of the month.
  • Anticipated for the next month is a further decline in arrivals, as farmers are expected to resist sales due to prevailing rates. However, there will likely be a minimum level of arrivals persisting. Additionally, the onset of summer crops in South India may contribute to market dynamics, potentially impacting overall supply levels.
  • Next week marks the election week for Gujarat, and Gujcot appeals to all stakeholders to cast their vote. This call to action underscores the importance of civic engagement and participation in the democratic process.
  • Let's remain hopeful for the best in the coming month.

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